I'm feeling pretty lucky these days. I have two jobs and I know there are a lot of people with no job and some who have a job, but aren't getting much work. The only small downside of having two jobs is that I have to make choices about how to spend my time for Magic. This year, I chose to skip the Extended season, so no Extended articles from me. Instead, I am aiming for the Grand Prix in Seattle, which will be Standard format. Along the way, I'm going to battle in as many Standard store events as I can manage and, of course, the FRM Team Challenge on March 21st. I could put out a primer on one of the favorite decks, but I thought it would be more interesting to focus on a Magic skill that I think is often underdeveloped by players - the Mulligan.
I'm going to encourage you to practice mulligans specifically. It doesn't take long, so I think it is well worth the effort. There are two ways that I have used to practice. The first is to use Magic Online, though that requires that you have the online cards. Just start a solitaire game with the practice deck and only do mulligans. Look at the first seven cards and decide if you would keep or not, but then mulligan to six and do the same. Continue until you are down to four cards, maybe three and then concede and start again. Just doing this process ten to twenty times should give you quite an advantage over the masses of people who, I would guess, never practice mulligans at all. Still, you should practice this until you feel comfortable with deciding when to mulligan or not. By the way, if you are playing a deck list that matches one that was posted on the official Magic The Gathering web site, you can essentially use this same process there. All of those posted deck lists have a "fan of cards" icon in the upper-right corner. Click on that and it will take you to the Sample Hand Generator and you can do this same process of mulligan testing. It's very easy and quick (and it is how I generated all the samples for this article).
The second approach uses real cards. You could do the exact same process that I described above, but it would require a lot of shuffling, so I've devised a quicker method. This method is essentially the same process, but in reverse. You start by drawing four cards and looking to see what a four-card hand looks like. It's usually pretty bad, but I would rarely go lower than four. Next, draw a fifth card and decide if that hand can be kept or not. Repeat until you are up to seven cards then set those aside and start again with four new cards. I like to put each set of the seven-card hands into two piles: keep or mulligan. That helps me to understand how often I expect to mulligan for a particular deck. You keep going through the deck seven cards at a time until you run out, then shuffle well and go through the process again.
No matter which method you use, take some time and consider the hands. It's fine to have a quick answer, but then take some time and justify it to yourself. Look for flaws in your reasoning and so on. This is a practice session, not a match, so you can take that extra time to look for factors you may have missed initially. If you can do this with another person and talk it over, even better.
I'm now going to give a general mulligan strategy for each of the popular decks and then show examples of seven, six and five card hands with commentary about why I would keep or mulligan each. Some of the comments below will be general rules, but many will be specific to the deck. For the most part, the mulligan decision consists of planning how you would play out the cards in hand along with some guess as to the likely cards that you will draw while playing out those from the opening hand. You should be looking for appropriate mana, spell quality, tempo and power. Also, take note that I am more critical when evaluating a 7-card hand than a 5-card hand; six cards are often better than seven, but four cards are rarely better than five.
This deck depends on early defense and card draws. Ideally, you want to see both in your opening hand, but it's easier to do without the defense if you have the card draw since you can hope to draw the defense you need. On defense, you generally want to have Terror, Volcanic Fallout, Plumeveil or Broken Ambitions. Of course, you really need to watch your mana with this deck. Make absolutely sure that you can actually cast those early spells. You can adjust this strategy a little if you know your opponent is also playing 5-color or a deck that is not as aggressive. On the other hand, if your opponent is playing Dark Bant, you really want to have something that will deal with a turn 2 Doran in your opener. One more point - with most decks I don't like to keep 5-land hands, but this is one deck that I don't mind having the extra land. I'd probably even keep six lands and a card draw spell, if my opponent is not too fast.
7 cards: Vivid Creek, Vivid Marsh, Vivid Meadow, Volcanic Fallout, Cryptic Command, Wall of Reverence
I would keep this, but I wouldn't be happy about it. All the lands come into play tapped, so that guarantees a slow start, but that's not terrible for this deck. I would hope to draw some other land to play on turn three so that I can cast Volcanic Fallout, if needed. Cryptic Command is nice to see, but if I have to use counters for double-red and triple-blue, my lands are going to be almost depleted at that point. Still, I have to keep it because it is playable and I don't want to mulligan with this deck unless I really have to.
6 cards: Vivid Meadow, Vivid Marsh, Island, Mulldrifter, Esper Charm, Volcanic Fallout
This actually looks a lot better than the 7-card hand. I can Evoke the Mulldrifter easily on turn 3 for some extra cards or cast Volcanic Fallout if I need to clear away an early rush. The two card draw spells almost assure me of having something to follow-up with.
5 cards: Sunken Ruins, Esper Charm, Broodmate Dragon, Plumeveil, Broken Ambitions
I really dislike the idea of going to four with this deck, but this is a miserable hand. Sunken Ruins is just colorless on its own and there are too many lands that will do nothing with it. If it was an Island instead, I would keep since I can cast Broken Ambitions with X=0 to try to position a land on top of the library. In this case, I think I go to four and hope to at least have a couple of lands.
7 cards: Vivid Crag, Cascade Bluffs, Vivid Creek, Esper Charm, Plumeveil, Wall of Reverence, Cruel Ultimatum
At first, this looks pretty good. I've got three lands, a draw spell and terrific early defense with the two walls. However, on closer examination of the lands, I discover that I cannot cast Esper Charm with those lands. Chances are good that the next land will solve that problem, but if not, I can still cast Plumeveil and, with any additional land, the Wall of Reverence. That's a strong defense, so this one can be kept and I hope to get that white mana source.
6 cards: 2 Exotic Orchard, Sunken Ruins, Mulldrifter, Wall of Reverence, Cryptic Command
This is a scary hand. If my opponent cannot produce blue or black, then my Sunken Ruins will only be able to produce colorless and I have no guarantee that I will be able to cast anything in my hand and it could be a long time before I can get enough blue for Cryptic Command. Unless I know my opponent's colors, I have to mulligan this.
5 cards: Reflecting Pool, Vivid Creek, Sunken Ruins, Mulldrifter, Broken Ambitions
This is a much better hand than the last and should show how important it is to make the tough choices. I think I have a much better chance to win with these cards.
Like most aggressive decks, this one is all about tempo. Ideally, you want to have a creature pump (Glorious Anthem or Ajani Goldmane) and a Bitterblossom or Spectral Procession in your opening hand along with the necessary mana. A second good hand is Spectral Procession and Windbrisk Heights. You really want to avoid a slow hand, like two Cloudgoat Rangers and Ajani Goldmane. These are strong spells, but by the time your first spells are cast, your opponent is likely to be all too ready to deal with them or has already done you in.
7 cards: Plains, Caves of Koilos, 3 Knight of Meadowgrain, Terror, Bitterblossom
This is not the great tempo hand that I would want to see. Bitterblossom makes it worth keeping, especially since my two lands allow me to cast any spell in hand. If nothing else, I should gain a bunch of life while waiting to draw better cards.
6 cards: Reflecting Pool, Tidehollow Sculler, Cloudgoat Ranger, 2 Bitterblossom, Spectral Procession
This one has to go back. Sure, if I rip a good land off the top, then I will probably wreck my opponent. The alternative, though, is that I fail to draw a land until turn four and then I am very dead. I see people keep hands like this all the time; don't be one of those people.
5 cards: 2 Reflecting Pool, Arcane Sanctum, Plains, Tidehollow Sculler
This is not a good hand, but it is better than going to four. The Sculler should help disrupt my opponent a bit and if I can avoid drawing more land for a while, I could squeak out a win.
7 cards: Reflecting Pool, Plains, Caves of Koilos, 2 Terror, Knight of Meadowgrain, Cloudgoat Ranger
This is a hand that lacks tempo. It's got the mana to cast three of the four spells, but they are not the right spells. Even if you get the mana for Cloudgoat Ranger by turn five, that means that you will have at most one other spell to play before it. I'd rather get six fresh cards.
6 cards: Reflecting Pool, Plains, Arcane Sanctum, Tidehollow Sculler, 2 Knight of Meadowgrain
This may not look much different, but it is. Instead of one creature, you have three that you are sure to be able to cast. It's not a stellar hand, but I think it is certainly an improvement. Keep it.
5 cards: Arcane Sanctum, Plains, Mutavault, Knight of Meadowgrain, Kitchen Finks
For a hand of only five cards, the Mutavault is a welcome card here. It give you a little more oomph if you get stalled on lands after the first rush. Certain to be better than any 4-card hand.
For this deck, you want to see a good curve from early to late spells. For example, it is generally good to have one Reveillark in the opening hand and generally bad to have two. The Knight of the White Orchid can be counted as a third land, assuming you can cast it with the first two lands in hand, but the tempo is better if you are playing second. The Knight also combines very well with Path to Exile, as long as you have a good target for the Path.
7 cards: 2 Windbrisk Heights, 2 Mountain, Plains, Spectral Procession, Siege-Gang Commander
Yuck. This hand has terrible tempo, but the double Heights with a Spectral Procession is calling out. I'm going to mulligan this one because there is nothing to help me attack with three if my opponent has any kind of removal spell in the first four turns of the game. I don't like those odds.
6 cards: Battlefield Forge, Rugged Prairie, Figure of Destiny, Reveillark, Mogg Fanatic, Knight of the White Orchid
I'd rather have this hand. I've got some early drops and, if I don't draw lands, I can hold the Knight of the White Orchid to help me get an extra Plains.
5 cards: 2 Reflecting Pool, Windbrisk Heights, Ranger of Eos, Mind Stone
I don't like having only white mana, but I'll keep this rather than going to four. Also, Mind Stone can get me another card and Ranger of Eos could get me to three attackers. It's actually pretty good for five cards.
7 cards: Rugged Prairie, Reflecting Pool, 2 Spectral Procession, Mogg Fanatic, Mind Stone, Path to Exile
I don't like the looks of this one. I could miss a land drop and be unable to cast Spectral Procession. My only other creature is Mogg Fanatic and it is not very exciting on its own. However, I can be sure to get to the mana I need if I cast Path to Exile on my own Mogg Fanatic. In the end, I think I would keep it, but not happily.
6 cards: 2 Windbrisk Heights, Plains, Reflecting Pool, Ranger of Eos, Mind Stone
At first, I thought I would have to mulligan this. Then I realized that I can cast Ranger of Eos on turn three to get two small guys of my choice. If he gets countered, I can still fall back on the Mind Stone to get me another card. It's not great, but I like it better than going to five.
5 cards: Windbrisk Heights, Battlefield Forge, Spectral Procession, Wrath of God, Ajani Vengeant
I'm going to need some luck with this one, but I definitely prefer it over four cards. I just need one more good land for Spectral Procession and then I might be able to get whatever gets put under the Windbrisk Heights. I have two spells at four mana, which is definitely a disadvantage, but not enough to mulligan.
The hand you generally want to see is 2 lands, a mana-producing creature (Birds of Paradise or Noble Hierarch) and Doran, the Siege Tower. The deck seems easy to mulligan because of the mana-producing creatures, so you shouldn't worry too much if a hand doesn't look too good. This is one of those decks that I would consider going to three cards if I don't get a land with four.
7 cards: 2 Brushland, Birds of Paradise, Tidehollow Sculler, Doran, the Siege Tower, 2 Wilt-Leaf Liege
This is that "perfect" hand. If I can keep my Birds alive and draw a third land, then I can attack for 7 on turn 3. If I don't get another land right away, then the Tidehollow Sculler can provide some disruption. Keep. Keep. Keep.
6 cards: Ancient Ziggurat, Yavimaya Coast, Birds of Paradise, Nameless Inversion, Rhox War Monk, Doran, the Siege Tower
Once again, I have a turn two Doran. Rhox War Monk gives me a second big beater and I have Nameless Inversion to clear out any single chump blockers. Also a keeper.
5 cards: Yavimaya Coast, Caves of Koilos, Noble Hierarch, Loxodon Warhammer, Rafiq of the Many
Not so good, but certainly a playable five cards. I just need one more mana source to be able to play Rafiq. Lacking that, I still have the option to equip the Hierarch with the Warhammer and swing.
7 cards: Llanowar Wastes, Ancient Ziggurat, Birds of Paradise, Rhox War Monk, Loxodon Warhammer, Tidehollow Sculler, Doran, the Siege Tower
Again, we have everything for a turn two Doran. No reason not to keep this one.
6 cards: Llanowar Wastes, 2 Birds of Paradise, Gaddock Teeg, Tidehollow Sculler, Rafiq of the Many
One mass removal spell will decimate my mana base and I still need both Birds to survive until I draw a fourth land for Rafiq. Gaddock Teeg can help stop Wrath of God and Tidehollow Sculler will help disrupt that mass removal. I'd keep it, but I'm going to watch my opponent closely and probably play Tidehollow Sculler early to see what I'm up against.
5 cards: Brushland, Ancient Ziggurat, Yavimaya Coast, Wilt-Leaf Liege, Doran, the Siege Tower
This one doesn't have the mana-producing creature, but still looks pretty good for five cards.
An opening hand with Bitterblossom is generally best. Some people will often mulligan until they get it, but I don't know the deck well enough to say if that is the right choice or not. It is true that Bitterblossom is incredibly synergistic with the rest of the deck. Jace Beleren is important for card advantage and it's great if you have Mistbind Clique as a finisher. I think this is a hard deck to give general rules about because there are a lot of ways it can play to win.
7 cards: Island, Sunken Ruins, Jace Beleren, Mistbind Clique, Shriekmaw, Agony Warp, Bitterblossom
Just two lands and still a keeper. You have three spells at two mana, including Bitterblossom. At three mana, you get card drawing so this should work just fine.
6 cards: 2 Faerie Conclave, Mutavault, 2 Thoughtseize, Spellstutter Sprite
This hand is playable, but it's a mess. There is no black mana for Thoughtseize and two of the lands come into play tapped. If I know my opponent has an aggressive deck, then I think I mulligan. Otherwise, I play it and hope to draw into something better.
5 cards: Sunken Ruins, 2 Bitterblossom, Glen Elendra Archmage, Mistbind Clique
This is another hand that I wouldn't want to keep, but I wouldn't want to mulligan either. On the positive side, if I can draw a blue or black mana source, then I can play one or both Bitterblossoms. On the negative side, I need a blue or black mana source to cast anything. I think I'd keep it if I was playing second and mulligan if I have to play first.
7 cards: Swamp, Mutavault, Sunken Ruins, Thoughtseize, Shriekmaw, Bitterblossom, Jace Beleren
This is a nice hand with a first-turn Thoughtseize and then probably a second turn Bitterblossom. Shriekmaw provides remove and Jace provides card drawing. Mutavault gives me a chance to get some extra damage in if the opportunity presents itself. It would have been nice to have a counterspell in there, but I can expect to draw one once Jace starts giving me draws.
6 cards: Island, Swamp, Thoughtseize, Remove Soul, 2 Shriekmaw
This is a pretty weak hand. It has no way to get a creature into play. I have a lot of disruption to help get to something more, but it looks like a long road. I think I'd mulligan and hope to get a Bitterblossom.
5 cards: Mutavault, Sunken Ruins, Sunken Ruins, Agony Warp, Cryptic Command
Not so good since I can't get any color from Sunken Ruins until I have a real color mana source. Once I do, though, I am assured of triple-blue for Cryptic Command. I'm going to need some luck, but I don't think it is bad enough to try four cards. Worst case, I'll still be able to activate my Mutavault and attack.
More than any other deck, this one needs to have the curve. You want to see a hand that is likely to summon a creature every turn until you win, or skips one turn to get Windbrisk Heights down followed by a turn that activates it. In general, Windbrisk Heights is the biggest card advantage for this deck. If you have Windbrisk Heights in your opening hand, it's probably a good one. Spectral Procession is the best partner, but three cheap creatures will also work, though it commits a lot more of your resources into play. Bad hands will have too many expensive spells. For example, four lands and two Cloudgoat Rangers is probably not going to win games even if you have one cheaper creature in hand. My examples will be for the R/W variety, but the monowhite is pretty similar.
7 cards: 2 Plains, Mutavault, Wizened Cenn, 2 Figure of Destiny, Knight of Meadowgrain
This could work out very well even though it is not the smoothest curve. I can cast Figure on turn one and then cast another on turn two while pumping the first. If I'm lucky enough to get another color mana source, then I can cast Wizened Cenn and pump the second Figure on turn three. It's definitely good enough to keep.
6 cards: Battlefield Forge, Rugged Prairie, 2 Mutavault, Goldmeadow Stalwart, Spectral Procession
This is good enough to keep, but it is not great. Notice that Spectral Procession cannot be cast until I have four mana because of the colorless Mutavaults. Similarly, Goldmeadow Stalwart will be four mana unless I can draw another Kithkin. The tempo is poor, but I don't think it is bad enough to try five.
5 cards: Battlefield Forge, Rugged Prairie, Windbrisk Heights, Glorious Anthem, Knight of Meadowgrain
Keep it and hope to gain enough life to stay alive for a while.
7 cards: Battlefield Forge, Rustic Clachan, Plains, Mutavault, Figure of Destiny, Cloudgoat Ranger, Path to Exile
It's not the best curve, but I think it works because it has some flexibility. For example, I have the option to cast Path to Exile on my own Figure in order to get mana for the Cloudgoat Ranger. I have a second creature in the Mutavault. It's not great, but I think it's worth keeping.
6 cards: Rugged Prairie, Windbrisk Heights, Plains, Goldmeadow Stalwart, Glorious Anthem, Cloudgoat Ranger
The tempo and curve on this hand is bad, bad, bad. One thing you really need to watch with Kithkin is the additional cost on Goldmeadow Stalwart. If one of those lands had been a Mutavault, it might have been playable. In this case, I have take my chances with the mulligan.
5 cards: Mutavault, Knight of Meadowgrain, Path to Exile, Wizened Cenn, Glorious Anthem
Disaster strikes. There are times when I would consider keeping a hand similar to this because I know that there are few good four-card hands. This one is worse because all but one of the spells are double-white. It has to go.
I have to admit that I don't know this deck all that well. I think I would want to see Mulldrifter, Esper Charm or Stillmoon Cavalier and the necessary mana. Lacking those, I would want to see Wrath of God with at least three mana. Tidehollow Sculler is decent, but it can only delay, not put on pressure. However, Tidehollow Sculler along with Path to Exile is a mighty fine combo that allows you to remove the card permanently while getting you a land as well. It is not good to have Reveillark as your only creature since its true power should come from bringing back the early guys that have died for the cause.
7 cards: Island, Sunken Ruins, Tidehollow Sculler, Sower of Temptation, Reveillark, Esper Charm, Cryptic Command
This is another case where someone may be lured by optimism to keep this hand. Sure, I only need one white mana source to be able to cast both Tidehollow Sculler and Esper Charm, but notice that I cannot cast anything until I get that white mana or I get to four mana. If the Island had been a Caves of Koilos, then it would have been playable.
6 cards: 2 Reflecting Pool, Vivid Marsh, Tidehollow Sculler, Reveillark, Esper Charm
This is a much, much better hand. I've got an early Tidehollow Sculler followed by a nice card drawing spell. I shouldn't have a problem getting either more spells to cast or enough mana for Reveillark. I will clearly keep this one.
5 cards: Vivid Creek, Mystic Gate, Island, Makeshift Mannequin, Sower of Temptation
This is not a good hand, but I would still have to keep it. It looks like nothing is happening until turn four, and then only if my opponent has a worthwhile creature to steal. Yuck, but not bad enough to go to four.
7 cards: Reflecting Pool, Island, Caves of Koilos, Tidehollow Sculler, Stillmoon Cavalier, Wrath of God, Glen Elendra Archmage
I can play Sculler turn two and the Cavalier on turn three. In addition, I'm just one mana source from being able to cast every spell in hand. Nice one.
6 cards: 2 Reflecting Pool, Fetid Heath, Tidehollow Sculler, 2 Cryptic Command
The question here is not whether or not this is a good hand. It is clearly not. The question is whether five cards are likely to be better. I've already said that I don't know the deck that well, but I do know that it has the highest mana curve of any of these decks. That means I need to be more conservative with my mulligans, so this is one I think I have to keep.
5 cards: Mystic Gate, Sunken Ruins, Glen Elendra Archmage, Mulldrifter, Cryptic Command
Lo and behold, these are definitely worse. Even if the land wasn't so bad, I had better hit three mana for Mulldrifter or its curtains for this game.
Now you've seen a lot of examples of how I practice mulligans. It would be very good to do this exercise with your teammates and friends and discuss the pros and cons of mulligans. I'm sure that some of you will disagree with my calls, so tell me about it in the forums and we can all learn something. Remember, I'm thirsty.